Models
Visible Alpha broker models via S&P Xpressfeed · 18 brokers · 478 line items · freshest revision 2026-07-09.
Cigna's modeled story is two businesses moving in opposite directions. Evernorth, the Express Scripts pharmacy-services engine, supplies the large majority of revenue and nearly all the growth, while Cigna Healthcare's top line runs roughly flat and its value rests on a bending medical-care ratio. The most differentiated signal in the broker models sits inside Evernorth, where pre-tax profit is rotating from legacy pharmacy benefits toward specialty and care services. Coverage is deep on the consolidated P&L and segment margins but thin and stale on international and group-disability lines.
Evernorth carries the top line; Cigna Healthcare revenue runs roughly flat
Evernorth's revenue rises every modeled year, whereas Cigna Healthcare's is roughly flat to slightly lower through FY-2027 before recovering. Consolidated growth is almost entirely Evernorth.
| Line | FY-2025A | FY-2026E | FY-2027E | FY-2028E | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenue | $272.09bn | $286.09bn | $298.60bn | $316.63bn | +5.1% | 17 |
| Total revenue - Evernorth | $231.97bn | $246.78bn | $259.83bn | $273.99bn | +6.4% | 13 |
| Total revenue - Cigna Healthcare | $47.00bn | $46.06bn | $46.05bn | $49.15bn | -2.0% | 14 |
Inside Evernorth, pre-tax profit is rotating from legacy pharmacy benefits to specialty and care
Pharmacy-benefit-services pre-tax profit steps down in FY-2026 and stays below its FY-2025 level, while specialty and care services grows steadily to become the larger pre-tax contributor. Revenue growth in both is priced as much as volume-driven.
| Line | FY-2025A | FY-2026E | FY-2027E | FY-2028E | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Revenue - Pharmacy benefit services - Operating | $130.17bn | $138.85bn | $144.81bn | $151.81bn | +6.7% | 9 |
| Revenue - Specialty and care services - Operating | $102.34bn | $109.35bn | $117.45bn | $125.85bn | +6.9% | 9 |
| Pre-tax profit | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Income/(loss) before income tax - Pharmacy benefit services - Operating | $3.49bn | $2.74bn | $2.77bn | $2.87bn | -21.4% | 8 |
| Income/(loss) before income tax - Specialty and care services - Operating | $3.68bn | $4.15bn | $4.47bn | $4.85bn | +12.6% | 8 |
Cigna Healthcare's medical-care ratio peaks in FY-2026, then bends lower
The medical-care ratio is modeled to peak in FY-2026 before improving into FY-2028, lifting operating income even as segment revenue stays flat. This margin path, not membership, is the segment's value driver.
| Line | FY-2025A | FY-2026E | FY-2027E | FY-2028E | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Medical care ratio - Cigna Healthcare(%) | 84.2% | 84.2% | 83.8% | 83.6% | +0.0pt | 16 |
| Selling, general & admin. expenses ratio - Cigna Healthcare(%) | 20.1% | 20.1% | 20.0% | 20.0% | -0.0pt | 16 |
| Income from operations - Cigna Healthcare - Operating | $4.21bn | $4.53bn | $4.92bn | $5.26bn | +7.6% | 10 |
Membership growth is fee-based services, not risk
Total medical customers grow modestly, but the gain is in services-only (fee-based) lives; employer-insured (risk) membership is flat to lower. The model reads Cigna Healthcare growth as low-risk and fee-based.
| Line | FY-2025A | FY-2026E | FY-2027E | FY-2028E | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total customers - Medical customers(K#) | 18.08m Number | 18.27m Number | 18.23m Number | 18.50m Number | +1.1% | 16 |
| Total customers - Services only(K#) | 13.81m Number | 14.07m Number | 14.29m Number | 14.50m Number | +1.9% | 17 |
| Total customers - Employer insured(K#) | 2.18m Number | 2.11m Number | 2.11m Number | 2.12m Number | -3.0% | 17 |
Where brokers disagree: medical-cost trend and PBM profit
Dispersion is widest on the FY-2027 medical-care ratio and Evernorth earnings, a medical-cost-trend and PBM-margin debate; headline EPS consensus (see CapIQ tab) is comparatively tight.
| Line | Period | Median | Q1–Q3 | Min–max | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Medical care ratio - Cigna Healthcare(%) | FY-2027E | 83.8% | 83.7%–84.2% | 82.7%–84.6% | 16 |
| Income from operations - Evernorth - Operating | FY-2027E | $7.91bn | $7.40bn–$8.25bn | $6.94bn–$8.89bn | 16 |
| Income/(loss) before income tax - Pharmacy benefit services - Operating | FY-2027E | $2.79bn | $2.71bn–$2.86bn | $2.51bn–$2.92bn | 8 |
| Total revenue - Cigna Healthcare | FY-2028E | $48.58bn | $48.04bn–$49.76bn | $45.96bn–$55.47bn | 12 |
Thin, stale coverage on international, group-disability and Medicare lines
Total revenue, EPS and segment margins carry up to 18 brokers with mid-2026 revisions, but International markets, Group disability & other and Medicare-advantage membership rest on a single broker with 2024-dated estimates. Treat those as one analyst's stale view, not consensus.
Headline P&L consensus, momentum and beat/miss live in the CapIQ tab.